Analyst's Take: What Power Scores Has Right (And Wrong) in Week 5

Prep Redzone got a major upgrade this week with the rollout of Power Scores. The algorithm uses five factors to rank teams in the state. It's a computer model, so it's not perfect, but I think it will add significant value to the site. Here, I'm looking at the current rankings to tell fans what <a href="https://prepredzone.com/north-carolina/team-database/">Power Scores</a> has right, and what it's gotten wrong.   <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What are Power Scores?</h2>   Power Scores are an algorithmically-generated team ranking system, accounting for the following information, in order of how much weight we assign to each metric:   • Win percentage   • Point differential   • Opponent win percentage   • Strength of schedule (opponent and opponent's opponent win %)   • Classification size   The goal is to provide a snapshot of the current high school football landscape. They'll change weekly on Sunday night so fans can dive in on Monday morning. Our scores and schedule have become a reliable source of timely information to follow the scene, and we're excited about how our Power Scores will continue to add value to football junkies on Prep Redzone.   Here's something cool as well. I (and any other scout) am not consulted on Power Scores. They're purely algorithmic, making them both impartial and based on mathematics.   That means I'm free to disagree, and if you read anything I write, I love to disagree. This weekly column will provide my take on Power Scores, what they got right, what they got wrong, and how they might change in the future.   <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Power Scores Got Right in Week 5</h2>   If you haven't already, check out this week's <a href="https://prepredzone.com/north-carolina/team-database/">Power Scores</a>.   There's plenty to talk about, but I want to highlight a few things I think this week's Power Score rankings nailed.   First, I could get behind having Cleveland at No. 1. Led by quarterback [player_tooltip player_id='1702810' first='Owen' last='Hulbert'] on offense and a slew of future Division 1 defenders like [player_tooltip player_id='1600424' first='Jaylen' last='King'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1076281' first='Cameron' last='Melvin'] on defense, the Rams have beaten four solid teams and enter one of the state's toughest conferences as the favorite.   I also like that Garner is the top one-loss team. I think the Trojans deserve that recognition after beating multiple strong teams with only a loss to No. 3 Millbrook. Quarterback [player_tooltip player_id='1625015' first='Christian' last='Ormandy'] has teamed up with a collective of skill players like [player_tooltip player_id='369167' first='Eric' last='Chisley'], [player_tooltip player_id='1656365' first='Tayden' last='McPhatter'], [player_tooltip player_id='1225217' first='Amir' last='Wallace'], and Aiden Gore to take the offense to the next level, while a strong secondary, led by [player_tooltip player_id='1397877' first='AJ' last='Randle'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1718578' first='Maddox' last='McDowell'], has the pass defense humming.   As a ranking of the most deserving resumes, not necessarily the most talented teams, I love the variety in the top 50.   In the top 50, there are eight teams from each of the 8A, 7A, and 6A ranks, seven each from 4A and 5A, five from 3A, and five total from 1A and 2A. We're still tweaking the private and independent data, but there should be a few teams that enter the rankings from there as well.   As a resume ranking, I love Power Scores and will start referring to our site rankings when talking about teams. We'll also have plenty of content by classification and area over the next few weeks.   <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Power Scores Got Wrong in Week 5</h2>   I have two main gripes with these initial rankings, and ironically, they skew the opposite way of what we normally see.   1. They overvalue winning   <ol class="wp-block-list"> <li></li> </ol>   2. Self-contained schedules create early value issues   One of these influences the other, so I'm going to talk about each in succession; bear with me.   <h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Can Something Overvalue Winning?</h3>   This is a valid question, but one we need to explore. Yes, the goal is to win, but it's early in the season, and winning isn't everything. The algorithm can overvalue wins against inferior competition, especially if the losing team has a good record.   So, Mallard Creek, for example, is punished for a loss to a top-five team nationally, and because two of its wins are against great teams that played extremely difficult schedules and lost a game elsewhere. The Mavericks are third in my <a href="https://prepredzone.com/2025/09/8a-midseason-check-in-what-do-we-know-so-far/">8A Rankings</a>, far ahead of their spot in 11th in Power Scores.   Similarly, Rolesville is undervalued in Power Scores. The Rams lost to Mallard Creek (which is undervalued as well, as we've already seen) and Providence Day, a team that doesn't have an accurate Power Score as we tweak the private school algorithm. But [player_tooltip player_id='771299' first='Kaleb' last='Williams'] is settled in, and [player_tooltip player_id='378957' first='Amir' last='Brown'] looks back to his old self. I expect the Rams to get rolling soon, which should help their rating.   <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Self-Contained Schedules</h3>   This is a term I've created recently. Teams have taken different approaches to scheduling in an eight-classification system, which skews the early-season Power Scores.   Here are three easy examples. Cleveland County is pound-for-pound the best football county in the state (my opinion, of course), with all four public schools being contenders in their respective classifications. Since they play in different conferences, the teams decided to play each other early in the season. So, we have a lot of 2-2 and 3-1 records early in the year.   3A Shelby lost to 5A Crest and 6A Kings Mountain, who, in turn, lost to top 6A and 7A teams. Because of that, I think all of those teams are underrated. Crest gets docked because of a one-score win against Shelby, who has two losses. This should fix itself if Shelby starts running through 3A competition. Between [player_tooltip player_id='1099168' first='Lan' last='Farmer'], [player_tooltip player_id='483642' first='Immanuel' last='Collins'], and a strong defense, I expect the Golden Lions to do that, boosting the ratings of everyone in the county.   Similarly, there are areas that feel overvalued right now. While I think 7A Cary is a great team, I think the schedule has benefited the Imps in Power Scores. The Imps have beaten some teams with decent records against smaller schools. As they all get into conference play, I could see the Imps slipping, not due to a lack of talent, but because of a recalibration of the schedule.   The same could be said of Apex Friendship, a team that has looked excellent against a fairly easy schedule. If that continues against tougher competition, they'll move up. If not, they could start to slide.   Lastly, dominant teams in non-dominant areas of the state seem to be a bit overvalued right now. I wrote glowing things about Hoggard <a href="https://prepredzone.com/2025/09/3-things-we-learned-in-week-4/">earlier this week</a>, and the Vikings' passing game, led by [player_tooltip player_id='1865522' first='Desyn' last='Durand'] at receiver, should be tough to stop. That said, I have them seventh in 8A, not second in the state. They've beaten two very good teams and should run through conference play. I just don't know if I could put them above teams like Hough and Myers Park.   The same is true in the Mountains, as Brevard and Watauga both sit in the top 10 overall. I could see either or both of these teams challenging or even winning their classification. I just wouldn't put them in the range of some of these bigger powers. That being said, Watauga's [player_tooltip player_id='1868481' first='Evan' last='Burroughs'] has been unstoppable, and Brevard's balance on offense could help the Blue Devils in conference play.   Both of these things should correct themselves as the season progresses. I chalk it up to a lack of data points so far. As we get more results, the rankings should stabilize.   What do you think of Power Scores? Let us know! See an issue, DM me on Twitter (<a href="https://x.com/whelms21">@whelms21</a>).

Prep Redzone got a major upgrade this week with the rollout of Power Scores. The algorithm uses five factors to rank teams in the state. It's a computer model, so it's not perfect, but I think it will add significant value to the site. Here, I'm looking at the current rankings to tell fans what Power Scores has right, and what it's gotten wrong.