Tyler’s Takes: What Power Scores Has Right (And Wrong) So Far

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The Michigan high school football season is rolling into Week 6, and so far we've seen plenty of movement across polls and computer models. Here at Prep Redzone, the Power Scores system uses a variety of factors to generate a rating for every team in our database: </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>•&nbsp;<strong>Win percentage</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>•&nbsp;<strong>Point differential</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>•&nbsp;<strong>Opponent win percentage</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>•&nbsp;<strong>Strength of schedule</strong>&nbsp;(opponent and opponent's opponent win %)</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>• <strong>Classification size</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p> In this piece, I'll break down what I think the computers have gotten right — and where they've missed — based on what I've seen and learned this season. Let's get into it! </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What's Right? </h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>A few teams really stand out as properly rated. Harper Woods being in the top five feels right to me. [player_tooltip player_id='1148711' first='Nate' last='Rocheleau'] and [player_tooltip player_id='547739' first='Dakota' last='Guerrant'] are an incredible duo, and the supporting cast around them is among the best in the state. I actually don't mind Saline at #1, though there's a case for a couple of other teams (which we'll get into shortly) to be in that same conversation. [player_tooltip player_id='568192' first='Tommy' last='Carr'], [player_tooltip player_id='1326375' first='Lincoln' last='Keyes'], and Justin Abbate are firing on all cylinders, and that offense is clicking at an unbelievable pace right now. Their defense is stout as well, making them a complete team. I also really like the love that Hudsonville is getting from the computer. Just a couple of points behind the top 5 teams, Hudsonville continues to roll and has put themselves in a position to clinch the OK-Red conference once again and make another deep playoff run. Another quiet team that I am happy to see get a good rating is Gaylord. They've clawed their way to a 6-0 record, and had a couple of really impressive performances along the way. This could be a sneaky team that could surprise some people in the postseason. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What's Wrong? </h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Well, you can go a lot of ways. These ratings are radically different from what I have personally, and what we have had on our statewide media poll, but let's start with a couple of big ones. I think Detroit Catholic Central and Cass Tech have legitimate arguments to be #1, but they certainly should both be top 5. [player_tooltip player_id='1148715' first='Samson' last='Gash'] and his DCC squad have been rolling through their Catholic League schedule. On the other hand, Cass Tech continues to do what they do. Coach Rushing has the boys buzzing right now, and have continued to blow out their inferior PSL counterparts. I would guess the strength of schedule is the detriment here, but I have no doubts about what the Technicians will be able to do in the postseason. Now, Davison being #18 is bizarre to me. I am assuming their close games with De La Salle and Roseville aren't doing them any favors, but [player_tooltip player_id='119260' first='Jaxson' last='Dosh'] is leading one of the most dynamic offenses in the entire state. There's absolutely no reason for them to be that low, as I believe this is still a state title contender, and Dosh is a Mr. Football favorite. Another ranking that really shocked me is seeing Clarkston all the way down at #37. This Wolves team is still unbeaten in their conference, and their only loss is a 1 point loss to Harper Woods, who Power Scores is loving right now. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Overall Takeaways</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>I think Power Scores heavily favors teams that are blowing out inferior competition. Teams like Woodhaven and Portage Central being so high seems like a result of some extremely lopsided affairs through the first half of the schedule. The algorithm has been giving a lot of love to those teams that have been dominant on both sides of the ball against lesser teams, even though there are better teams that have marquee wins against some of the best teams in the state, but I'm not sure the rankings are giving them the proper respect yet. It will be interesting to see if that is fixed or if water finds its level over the last half of the regular season. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->