Rating the Rankings: What 6A Power Scores Get Right (and Wrong)

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We now have Power Scores to rank all the teams across the entire state! Like any new formula, though, it's going to throw out a few eyebrow‑raising results. Seeing a small‑school juggernaut pop up near an Open‑division heavyweight is one of those moments. Scottsdale Christian is wrecking shop down in 2A, while Liberty is out here battling against nationally ranked teams. Both are chasing three‑peats, but those climbs are very different.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Because cross-classification comparisons get weird fast, I'm narrowing this to 6A only.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">How the Power Score Works&nbsp;</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Per <a href="https://prepredzone.com/2025/09/what-are-power-scores/">the explainer</a>, the score blends:</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list --> <ul class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li><strong>Win percentage</strong></li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li><strong>Point differential</strong></li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li><strong>Opponent win percentage</strong></li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li><strong>Strength of schedule (opponent and opponent's opponent win %)</strong></li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li><strong>Classification size</strong></li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ul> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>All teams start at 0, so it's strictly a current-year resume — no carryover from last season, no credit for who's on your roster, no preseason priors. What's not published: the weights on each factor, whether margin of victory is capped, and how out-of-state opponents are normalized.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Those missing details matter a lot in Week 3. If margin isn't capped (or it's capped high), early blowouts inflate resumes. If classification strength doesn't carry enough weight, you start to see 2A teams up with teams contending for the Open. And if out-of-state games aren't handled cleanly, a tough loss to a national power can look worse than it should.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>One more thing: it's&nbsp;<strong>early</strong>. Programs like Highland and ALA-Queen Creek can be all the way out of the top-20 right now because of front-loaded schedules. As those teams start to stack up wins and climb the rankings, that'll also positively impact the teams that beat them through these first three weeks, because it will look like a more legitimate win to the formula.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">The 6A Top 20&nbsp;</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:table --> <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Record</th><th>Power Score</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>Hamilton</td><td>3–0</td><td>96.83</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Pinnacle</td><td>3–0</td><td>96.54</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Basha</td><td>3–0</td><td>96.38</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Higley</td><td>3–0</td><td>93.59</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Red Mountain</td><td>3–0</td><td>93.33</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Salpointe Catholic</td><td>3–0</td><td>92.84</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Queen Creek</td><td>3–0</td><td>92.34</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Chandler</td><td>2–1</td><td>88.72</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Liberty</td><td>2–1</td><td>88.67</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Centennial</td><td>2–1</td><td>88.00</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Mountain View–Mesa</td><td>2–1</td><td>87.59</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Williams Field</td><td>2–1</td><td>87.01</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Brophy College Prep</td><td>2–1</td><td>86.76</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Shadow Ridge</td><td>2–1</td><td>85.45</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Saguaro</td><td>1–2</td><td>80.65</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Sandra Day O'Connor</td><td>1–2</td><td>79.77</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Westwood</td><td>1–2</td><td>79.50</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Perry</td><td>1–2</td><td>79.29</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Mesa</td><td>1–2</td><td>79.21</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Corona del Sol</td><td>1–2</td><td>78.36</td></tr></tbody></table></figure> <!-- /wp:table --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Overrated (For Now)</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Pinnacle (No. 2)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>That defense is flying around — real speed, real pursuit — and they deserve credit for making life miserable on everyone they've faced so far. Still, while a 3–0 record with a sparkling margin looks great in the algorithm, I'm not fully sold until I see them shut down a truly explosive offense. The secondary has been opportunistic, and the linebackers rally well, but the schedule hasn't forced them into crisis mode yet. On offense, the potential is there but it's been more about flashes than consistency. The little hiccups haven't burned them yet because they've had some room to work with. Against top‑five caliber defenses, those mistakes will kill drives. If the unit tightens that up and the defense proves itself against one of the state's heavy hitters, then No. 2 won't feel so lofty. Until then, I'm cautious.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Mountain View–Mesa (No. 11)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This is an offense‑driven squad, and getting blanked by Liberty is hard to ignore. Quarterback [player_tooltip player_id='1369417' first='Brady' last='Goodman'] can drop a gorgeous deep ball, the kind that flips field position instantly, but when the big shot isn't there, Mountain View struggles to manufacture the kind of efficient drives you need against elite defenses. Their offensive line looked out‑matched against Liberty's front, leaving Goodman little time to work through progressions. A team that thrives on splash plays has to be able to grind out the boring five‑yard gains too, and right now that part of the offense is lagging. With Basha looming, this is as tough of a stress test as they'll get. If Mountain View shows they can hang and sustain drives even when the deep ball is taken away, then No. 11 feels justified. If not, they probably belong closer to the middle of the pack.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Higley (No. 4)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Higley is a fascinating case. They've got a loaded roster with real juice at quarterback in [player_tooltip player_id='1134311' first='Gunner' last='Fagrell'], who's looked poised and dangerous. They've also got size and athleticism across the skill spots, and this is a program that has carried itself like a contender for a few years now. But sliding them into the fourth spot in 6A off this three‑game resume feels premature. The jump from 5A to 6A is significant, especially in the trenches where every week is a grind. So far, Higley's done a fine job, but they haven't shown how they respond to a truly top‑10 caliber opponent. Until they notch that signature win—or even go toe‑to‑toe and lose a coin‑flip game against one of the state's heavyweights—I'm not ready to call them top-five level.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Underrated</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Liberty (No. 9)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This is where the limitations of the formula stand out. Liberty wasn't afraid to test themselves against anyone, anywhere. Taking one on the chin against a national power in Corner Canyon shouldn't bury them behind teams that haven't been tested at all. This roster is loaded: D1 players on every level of the defensive, a receiving corps that can score from anywhere on the field, and multiple backs who can control game scripts. Their defense is physical enough to muddy up even elite offenses, and the offense is balanced with the ability to dictate tempo. With all their recent success against teams in the state, I still have them firmly in the top three.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Queen Creek (No. 7)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The model dings them because their resume isn't loaded with highlight‑reel wins yet, but here's the important context: they've done this without their star quarterback. [player_tooltip player_id='739440' first='Tait' last='Reynolds']&nbsp;left in the opener and hasn't played since. That would have sunk a lot of programs. Instead, backup Sawyer Hales has been lights‑out, throwing 10 touchdowns in three games and keeping the offense steady. And then there's Jaron Lyles, who has stepped up as a reliable perimeter threat, winning one‑on‑ones and giving defenses headaches. They're winning by comfortable margins, averaging more than 17 points per game, despite not having their ace under center. When Reynolds returns, Queen Creek's ceiling skyrockets.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Williams Field (No. 12)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Their only loss came against Basha, the team I'd argue is No. 1 in the state. That matters. Williams Field is built on physicality: a big offensive line that leans on defenses, two downhill backs that turn every fourth quarter into a grind, and a quarterback who's throwing with growing confidence and seeing the field really well right now in [player_tooltip player_id='677793' first='Dominick' last='Barjona']. They also have enough playmakers outside to punish defenses that crowd the box. That defense is going to have to find another level against high‑octane attacks — it bent too much against Basha. But that's correctable, and if they can stiffen up against top offenses, Williams Field belongs in the top 10, rather than outside it. They're tougher than the current score shows.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hold That Thought (Could Be Right; Want More Data)</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Salpointe Catholic (No. 6)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The foundation here is strong. The coaching is sharp, they play with discipline, and their skill guys compete with edge. It's easy to see why the model likes them: 3–0 and handling business. The hesitation comes from their resume so far being built against 5A programs, which makes it tricky to measure exactly where they stack up among 6A elites. That's not their fault — it's just the schedule — but it means we need a bigger sample before declaring them a top‑six lock. Give me one clean performance against a true top‑10 6A squad, and I'll feel a lot more confident about this ranking.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">Brophy (No. 13)</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>If you told me back in August that Brophy would be sitting 13th and it wouldn't feel crazy, I might not have believed you. Yet here we are. The defense is absolutely good enough to keep them in tough, ugly games, and they've shown they can slug it out. The offense, though, is where the questions live. When the competition stiffens, they lean heavily on [player_tooltip player_id='401157' first='Devin' last='Fitzgerald'] to play savior. Against top‑tier defenses — like Hamilton, who comes into town this week —&nbsp;that reliance on one guy is a red flag. If they find that second pitch, Brophy could climb. If not, things could snowball fast with one of the toughest remaining schedules.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading --> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Early-Season Overreactions</h2> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These rankings are brand new, and like any fresh model, they're going to wobble a bit until more data rolls in. Once there are more weeks on the board, the numbers should start smoothing out and painting a clearer picture. For now, though, they're the perfect fuel for early‑season debates and overreactions, and honestly, that's half the fun of September football.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->