Week 10 Games With Huge Playoff Implications – Class 5A and 4A
With only one week left in the regular season, the playoff race is all but decided for a few teams/districts. For most teams, however, their seeding could be affected in a huge way, positive or negative, by the results of…
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Continue ReadingWith only one week left in the regular season, the playoff race is all but decided for a few teams/districts. For most teams, however, their seeding could be affected in a huge way, positive or negative, by the results of this week’s games. Many districts are up for grabs, and in a year like this where the playoffs have been expanded and seeding determination has changed due to COVID scheduling issues, finishing high in your district may be more important than ever. There are games not listed here that may have some smaller implications on playoffs, but these are the top few in 5A and 4A that could shake up the brackets in a big way. Some of these scenarios have a lot of moving parts and are somewhat complex, try your best to stick with me and I’ll do my best to explain everything.
Disclaimers:
- All rankings next to teams are based on their district ranking coming into this week
- Records by each team are based on district play only.
- Some districts are doing coaches polls (Coaches Rankings) for playoff seeding, others are using a modified version of the normal district standings (Modified Criteria)
Class 5A (All Modified Criteria)
District 1
#2 Lawton McArthur (3-1) @ #4 Ardmore (2-2)
This district is all but settled at the top if El Reno can take care of Altus, but the 2-4 slots are very much up for grabs. If Lawton Mac and #3 Duncan both win (Duncan plays 1-4 Southeast), the top 4 will likely remain the same going into the playoffs as Lawton defeated Duncan earlier in the season. But if Ardmore can pull off a win against the Highlanders, they will move up to number 3 in the district with the possibility of vaulting to number 2 if Duncan loses.
District 2
#1 Carl Albert (4-0) @ #5 Lawton Eisenhower (1-2) and #2 Bishop McGuinness (4-1) @ #8 Guymon (0-5)
These two games are most likely easy wins for the favorites, which would mean Carl Albert wins the district once again, but we’d be remised if we didn’t go through all possible outcomes. If Carl Albert loses and McGuinness wins, the Irish would have to win by at least 15 points, depending on the final score of CA’s game, to jump the Titans and win the district. Barring Carl Albert getting blown out, if both teams lose, Guthrie would jump McGuinness for the 2nd spot and the Titans would remain district champions.
District 3
#3 Bishop Kelley (4-1) @ #4 Shawnee (4-2)
This matchup likely will decide #2-4 in the district. Due to district points, even if Bishop Kelley wins and #1 Coweta loses, the comets would likely only finish 2nd in the district (if #2 McAlester (4-2) loses). If Shawnee wins, they will finish 3rd in the district with a McAlester win, and 2nd with a McAlester loss.
District 4
#1 Collinsville (6-0) vs #2 Tahlequah (4-1)
Due to the disparity in district points, Collinsville will likely win the district even with a loss, but this matchup could still shape #’s 2-5 in a big way. If Tahlequah wins, they likely seal themselves at number 2 in the district, but if they lose, they could drop to 3 or 4 depending on the result of Pryor @ Claremore.
#3 Pryor (4-1) @ #4 Claremore (3-2)
Pryors lone loss in district play came to Collinsville, and Claremore has losses against Collinsville and Tahlequah. With a Pryor win and a Tahlequah loss, the district standings would go as follows:
- Collinsville (7-0)
- Pryor (5-1)
- Tahlequah (4-2)
- Sapulpa (4-2) – contingent on win over Glenpool (1-4)
- Claremore (3-3)
Then on the other side, with a Claremore win and Tahlequah loss, the district rankings would be:
- Collinsville (7-0)
- Tahlequah (4-2)
- Claremore (4-2)
- Pryor (4-2)
- Sapulpa (4-2) – contingent on win over Glenpool (1-4)
This would be the most chaotic possibility and would have a 4-way tie that would be broken based on matchups, point differential, and average point differential.
Class 4A
District 1(Coaches Rankings)
#1 Weatherford (4-0) vs #4 Cache (2-2)
If Weatherford wins this game, they will take the district and have a good shot at the number 1 overall seed in 4A, but if they lose, things get interesting. Both #2 Newcastle and #3 Clinton have only one loss in district play, so with wins from either or both of them and a loss from Weatherford, there would be a 2-way or 3-way tie for 1st place in the district, which would then be decided by a coaches vote. For Cache, they are likely to stay at 4 unless one or both of Newcastle and Clinton lose, which would put them into 2nd or 3rd depending on how the coaches vote.
District 2 (Coaches Rankings)
#1 Tuttle (5-0) @ #2 Blanchard (4-0)
This district is settled in most places but at the top. With the district voting to determine by coaches ranking, this matchup should be a straight-up district championship game with the loser most likely staying at 2.
District 3 (Coaches Rankings)
#1 Wagoner (6-0) @ #4 Skiatook (3-1)
This district is another that could be settled easily if the favorite wins. With a Wagoner win, they would finish an undefeated season and win the district. With a Skiatook win, the district goes into a likely 3-way tie as Wagoner, Bristow (if they can beat Oolagah (3-2)), and Skiatook would all have one district loss. Things get interesting with that as Wagoner has already defeated Bristow, but due to cancellations, Skiatook and Bristow have not played this year, so it will be up to the coaches again to decide who gets the title if Skiatook can upset Wagoner in this one.
District 4 (Modified Criteria)
#1 Poteau (6-0) @ #2 Broken Bow (5-1)
Since this is the only district in the class going off of district points, this game is mostly ceremonial for Poteau. They are currently ahead by over 40 district points, so even with a close loss they will remain in first place. Second place, however, is still ripe for the taking. Broken Bow is currently second in the district, but only by one point over Hilldale, who beat them by a point earlier this season. Hilldale plays #4 Ft Gibson (3-3) this week, so whoever finishes with the better point differential Friday night between Broken Bow and Hilldale will finish second in the district. What an odd situation.