Lead Scout’s Take: ND 11AA Power Scores, Week 4

We launched our own algorithm called Power Scores this afternoon which you can read more about <a href="https://prepredzone.com/2025/09/what-are-power-scores/">here </a>on the breakdown on what goes into it. I'll say as our lead scout: I have zero input that goes into our power scores. However, I do have the ability to challenge the algorithm based on what I know about 11AA football with all the teams and players involved by being around the Dakotas since we launched in 2020. I'll get into where each team in 11AA lies and my take on if they are too low or too high based on the algorithm. Also, note that there is crossover as the power score ranks every class without divisions.   By the Numbers   -First number is rank in 11AA, the second number is overall rank amongst all four divisions   #1/#2 Minot North 97.12   #2/#4 Kindred 96.82   #3/#9 Grand Forks Central 95.28   #4/#18 Central Cass 89.14   #5/#21 Watford City 88.29   #6/#24 Devils Lake 87.73   #7/#35 Dickinson 81.43   #8/#37 Fargo South 80.35   #9/#40 Jamestown 79.7   #10/#43 Grand Forks Red River 78.24   #11/#48 Bismarck St. Mary's 73.95   #12/#50 Wahpeton 72.33   Overrated or Underrated?   I will you which from our algorithm is overrated or underrated in my evaluation thus far as we enter Week 4.   • Win percentage   Overrated We've played too little of games (3) for win percentages to matter. Just like a math quiz, if you go 3-1 (75% win percentage) that drops substancially from 100% with just one loss. There are three teams left in 11AA with a perfect 100% winning percentage which is Kindred, Grand Forks Central, and Minot North   • Point differential   Underrated What's interesting when you move into North Dakota 11AA you see the point differential total go up slightly up. What drives that number up? It appears that most of the 3-0 teams have not played the most superior competition in their wins which is why that number is higher than other classes. In order it's Minot North (+31) Grand Forks Central (+22), Kindred (+20)   • Opponent win percentage   Overrated With this class and at this time I feel opponent win percentage is overrated. Again, it comes down to just a win here or a loss here can change the course of the season. For example, let's look at Fargo South. They have a grinder of a next few games at Devils Lake, at home against Grand Forks Central, on the road at Kindred and then Central Cass at Home. Every single one of those teams is either 3-0 or 2-1 right now which tells you a lot can change in the coming weeks.   • Strength of schedule (opponent and opponent's opponent win %)   Underrated The reason why I feel strength of schedule is underrated is due to the relegation that happens constantly between 11AA and 11AAA. Most of these teams in 11AA will play up against 11AAA competition and very few play a game down to 11A especially this season. Look at Kindred, brand new to 11AA and has already knocked off 11AAA West Fargo Horace this season. That could go down as the biggest win in 11AA this season.   • Classification size   Underrated From my lens classification size matters in this class. There are only 12 teams in 11AAA which is much smaller than most states. With the way divisions are setup I feel froma a scouting perspective every year it sets up to be anyones game to get to the FargoDome.   Superlatives   Biggest Lock   Kindred winning over Jamestown at home   Most Interesting Game   Grand Forks Central (3-0) on the road against Watford City (2-1). I have learned over the years that Watford City is usually an unknown, but this year is the first year I can remember they have an NSIC commit as [player_tooltip player_id='1590721' first='Thaydan' last='Arnold'] is committed to Minot State after a great summer at camps. The GFC Knights also have an NSIC target that is committed to MSU-Moorhead, as Valley City State camp standout Eli Thompson is a defensive player that the Wolves will have to watch for.   Winless No More in Week 4   We will be down to one winless team left in 11AA after this week, as Bismarck St. Mary's comes ot Wahpeton. My pick to win this one is Bismarck St. Mary's as it seems nobody in 11AA has figured out how to slow down top 2027 RB target [player_tooltip player_id='1314732' first='Beckett' last='Price'], who is led upfront by a solid offensive line in Jamestown commit Carter Miclitsch and uncommitted 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1161045' first='Roman' last='Barnes'].   Biggest Sleeper Thus Far   Devils Lake (2-1) It has been a minute since we have seen the Firebirds in the polls and they have a favorable scheduled over the next few weeks to possibly be 5-1 heading into Week 7.   Biggest Shift   Like I said with my biggest lock, Kindred is in the best position to take over as #1 in the polls which could shake things up. Minot North will take on an 11AAA squad in Fargo North (2-1) in Minot on Friday night which coujld be a the Sentinels first big test. Same applies with Grand Forks Central heading to Watford City in what I feel is the game of the week in 11AA. Kindred just moved up this year to 11AA from 11A and is proving to be quite the hotbed for D1 and next-level talent despite their population being under 800 people which just is mind boggling across the board in a good way.

We launched our own algorithm called Power Scores this afternoon which you can read more about here on the breakdown on what goes into it. I'll say as our lead scout: I have zero input that goes into our power scores. However, I do have the ability to challenge the algorithm based on what I know about 11AA football with all the teams and players involved by being around the Dakotas since we launched in 2020. I'll get into where each team in 11AA lies and my take on if they are too low or too high based on the algorithm. Also, note that there is crossover as the power score ranks every class without divisions.