Lead Scout’s Take: ND 11AAA Power Scores, Week 4

We launched our own algorithm called Power Scores this afternoon which you can read more about <a href="https://prepredzone.com/2025/09/what-are-power-scores/">here </a>on the breakdown on what goes into it. I'll say as our lead scout: I have zero input that goes into our power scores. However, I do have the ability to challenge the algorithm based on what I know about 11AAA football with all the teams and players involved by being around the Dakotas since we launched in 2020. I'll get into where each team in 11AAA lies and my take on if they are too low or too high based on the algorithm. Also, note that there is crossover as the power score ranks every class without divisions.   By the Numbers   -First number is rank in 11AAA, second number is overall rank amongst all divisions   #1/#5-Shanley 96.5   #2/#11 Bismarck Legacy 94.67   #3/##17 Fargo Davies 89.36   #4/#20 Fargo North 88.39   #5/#22 Bismarck 88.0   #6/#28 West Fargo Horace 85.24   #7/#33 West Fargo 81.8   #8/#39 Bismarck Century 80.15   #9/#41 West Fargo Sheyenne 79.67   #10/#49 Mandan 72.88   #11/#52 Minot 72.14   #12/#57 Williston 68.24   Overrated or Underrated?   I will you which from our algorithm is overrated or underrated in my evaluation thus far as we enter Week 4.   • Win percentage   Overrated We've played too little of games (3) for win percentages to matter. Just like a math quiz, if you go 3-1 (75% win percentage) that drops substancially from 100% with just one loss. There are just two teams left with a 100% winning percentage in 11AAA which is Fargo Shanley and Bismarck Legacy.   • Point differential   Underrated I have pretty much the same take as I did yesterday in South Dakota 11AAA. It's been proven that the NDHSAA model works from a parity perspective. Teams that win a lot of games or win state titles, they move up and teams that struggle they move down. Just conmparing states, the point differential in 11AAA in North Dakota screams out why that model work as the highest point differential in 11AAA is 2-1 Fargo Davies at +16. Of course, when state playoffs hit this becomes overrated because every time is 0-0 and one loss you are out.   • Opponent win percentage   Neutral I stand netural on this as I feel 11 out of the 12 teams can beat eachother any week and we've seen that be evident in years past. Minot is a good example, they won state just two years ago and the development within that program is top-notch. This year's example as a team I would never overlook, is Bismarck Century as the amount of next-level prospects that is on that roster is high yet they sit at 1-2 against the meat of 11AAA with losses to Fargo Shanley and Fargo Davies but winning over 2024 11AAA champs West Fargo Sheyenne.   • Strength of schedule (opponent and opponent's opponent win %)   Underrated I would say strength of schedule is always underrated and here is why. You see it college football all the time and it applies to high school football too. Teams start 3-0 against with a cupcake strength of schedule get humbled in Week 4 against maybe a team that has played the meat and potatoes of their league already. I'll use Bismarck Century again as an example here. The Patriots are a much better team than the 1-2 record shows. Another great example? West Fargo they have lost to Bismarck Legacy (#1) and Bismarck (#4) by a combined TWO points total and are 1-2. What's interesting? They get Bismarck Century this week at the Bismarck Bowl.   • Classification size   Underrated From my lens classification size matters in this class. There are only 12 teams in 11AAA which is much smaller than most states. With the way divisions are setup I feel froma a scouting perspective every year it sets up to be anyones game to get to the FargoDome.   Superlatives   Biggest Lock   There's a lot of good games this week, but my biggest lock stands with Fargo Shanley (3-0) at home against Minot (0-3)   Most Interesting Games   I already mentioned West Fargo (1-2) at Bismarck Century (1-2), but #4 Bismarck (2-1) heading to #3 Fargo Davies (2-1) intrigues me.   Another interesting one, will be last year's 11AA state champions West Fargo Horace (2-1) heading out to #1 Bismarck Legacy (3-0)   Winless No More in Week 4   There are three winless teams left in 11AAA and the one I would pick to get their first win of the season this week? Mandan Braves as they play hosts to West Fargo Sheyenne (1-2).   Biggest Sleeper   West Fargo Packers (1-2) are playing sleeper in my eyes so far this year, just look above for their point differential against two good teams for proof of what I am talking about. [player_tooltip player_id='1590674' first='Reed' last='Kurzweg'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1113068' first='Aiden' last='Samek'] were my favorite duo from camps this summer so I can't say I am not surprised the Packers on the up.   Biggest Shift   Where could I see the biggest Power Score shift? I'll be watching that #5 West Fargo Horace (2-1) vs. #1 Bismarck Legacy game closely in Bismarck. If the Hawks pull off the upset, Fargo Shanley should be the definite #1 but as far spots 2-5 goes it's anybody's guess.

We launched our own algorithm called Power Scores this afternoon which you can read more about here on the breakdown on what goes into it. I'll say as our lead scout: I have zero input that goes into our power scores. However, I do have the ability to challenge the algorithm based on what I know about 11AAA football with all the teams and players involved by being around the Dakotas since we launched in 2020. I'll get into where each team in 11AAA lies and my take on if they are too low or too high based on the algorithm. Also, note that there is crossover as the power score ranks every class without divisions.