Class 5A Division I Lower State Third Round Preview

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This season, Prep RedZone South Carolina launched its Power Scores metric, an algorithm that analyzes various team metrics.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Win percentage, point differential, strength of schedule, classification.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The computer model has so far been accurate in telling us which teams are going to succeed down the road - not because it's Nostradamus, but because it tells how just how good a team with a good record is.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Not surprisingly, the four teams remaining in the Class 5A Division I Lower State bracket are all near the top of the algorithm. James Island is No. 4 overall, while the Trojans' third-round foe, Stratford, is sitting at No. 7. Summerville, at No. 16, will head to Carolina Forest, currently No. 5.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Games aren't won and lost on a computer model, and this week will be further indication that for everything these four bring to the table, it's about execution on Friday, not talking points of a metric on a Tuesday.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Let's get into these two matchups, what's led us to these games and what we're keeping an eye on come the third round.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong><em>NO. 5 SUMMERVILLE (10-2) AT NO. 1 CAROLINA FOREST (10-1)</em></strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Both of these teams have figured out how to put an immense amount of pressure on opposing defenses. And while there are plenty of components, it starts with the tailbacks. Summerville's <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1215391' first='Jayven' last='Williams']</strong> has rushed for 1,534 yards and and 19 touchdowns. His biggest games of the year? The second-round win over Ashley Ridge in which is pumped out 273 yards and three scores. For Carolina Forest, <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1148537' first='Jaryn' last='Fox']</strong> has rushed for 1,655 yards and 22 touchdowns. Last Friday's win against Fort Dorchester wasn't necessarily his best game, but it further illuminated how good he could be. With only 12 carries, he hit 201 yards and three touchdowns in what was essentially a half of football. When it comes to field vision, these two have a special element to package with their lower body strength and speed.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>So, how do the Green Wave and Panthers make the most of it? By not putting everything into just those two players. The quarterbacks and receivers have no choice but to balance it out to maximize possessions to keep pace with the other. Summerville's <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1734517' first='Max' last='Stafford']</strong> (1,645 yards, 19 touchdowns) and Carolina Forest's <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='284135' first='Kamren' last='Long'] </strong>(1,765 yards, 27 touchdowns) have done well picking their spots. Both can hit the home run ball but also both know how to work the sidelines. Their numerical similarities stretch to the interceptions, too. Both have thrown exactly three picks all season, with Long's coming in his 159 throws and Stafford in 169.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>They each also have a favorite target (<strong>[player_tooltip player_id='378969' first='Jaiden' last='Kelly-Murray']</strong> for Stafford and <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1820976' first='Nick' last='Zincone']</strong> for Long) and some strong second options in the Class of 2028. Summerville's <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1061146' first='Teru' last='Davis']</strong> (20 receptions, 451 yards, three touchdowns) and Carolina Forest's <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1672894' first='Brady' last='McDowell']</strong> (26 receptions, 438 yards, eight touchdowns) have gotten their share of targets and reaffirmed that's it's not all top guy or bust. It's why both teams have been scoring like they have this year and set up this third-round match-up as a potential points fest.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong><em>Specialist to Watch</em></strong><em>:</em> Every point in this one is going to matter. Every. Point. Summerville junior kicker <strong>Nate Beaver</strong> has connected on 58-of-61 extra points and has also hit three field goals this season, one as far as 45 yards. With this game being played on a turf field similar to what Summerville normally plays on, he should have little issue being comfortable in the environment. But with both staffs know empty possessions could be costly, the impetus to max out each one might be reason enough to try a field goal that normally may have been a fourth-down play.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:acf/hudl {"name":"acf/hudl","data":{"embed_code":"u003ciframe src='https://www.hudl.com/embed/video/3/21965773/69160595fb49d60e6181ce66' width='640' height='360' frameborder='0' allowfullscreenu003eu003c/iframeu003e","_embed_code":"field_62daf7995fd8c"},"mode":"edit","alignText":"left","anchor":"acf-block-691b4bcc2f42f"} /--> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong><em>NO. 6 JAMES ISLAND (11-1) AT NO. 2 STRATFORD (10-1)&nbsp;</em></strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Two of the teams involved in the most exciting games in the state last week now hook up for what may ultimately be an even better game. By now, you've probably seen that Stratford bested River Bluff when <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1165148' first='Jachin' last='Davis']</strong> hit <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1822240' first='J'Qwan' last='Crosby']</strong> with a 50-yard Hail Mary at the end of the Knights' 40-35 victory and <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1592342' first='Connor' last='Dantzler']</strong> connecting with <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1822902' first='James' last='Hurteau']</strong> in the second overtime period lifted the Trojans past Sumter. Those action-packed final sequences for both teams, though, were only set up because both of these offenses have been putting up points all season.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>For the Knights, <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='473027' first='Meliq' last='McGowan']</strong> (pictured) has been one of the most impactful transfers we've seen statewide. He averaged just shy of 11 yards per carry during the regular season and hasn't missed a beat in the postseason. That he can catch the ball out of the backfield only makes him more dangerous. James Island has gone more to the pass game, and <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='874321' first='Raphael' last='Puiu']</strong> (47 receptions, 1,122 yards, 15 touchdowns) has been nothing short of immaculate and has been a huge part of Dantzler's massive progression this season.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Where this game will be decided, though, is how Stratford's offensive line can handle a normally stout James Island front seven. <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1267289' first='Jameson' last='Pelham']</strong> (LT), <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1399623' first='TJ' last='Bryant']</strong> (LG), <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1403903' first='Ben' last='Jordan']</strong> (C), <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1819714' first='Greg' last='Campbell']</strong> (RG) and <strong>[player_tooltip player_id='1819134' first='Antonio' last='Gantt']</strong> (RT) have shown how good they can be as a unit and have shown they can be the most consistent part of an offense that averages north of 41 points per game and that has scored at least 38 in the last four games, the crucial part of this swing. They're going to need to neutralize guys like [player_tooltip player_id='1896110' first='Rob' last='Grant'] on the line, but also [player_tooltip player_id='1274260' first='Bryson' last='Bowers'] at linebacker.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong><em>Specialists to Watch:</em></strong> Between super sophomore<strong> Isaac Lorentz</strong> and one-year wonder [player_tooltip player_id='1902448' first='Cody' last='Lenhardt'] (a senior in his first year of organized football) James Island has two of the better specialists in the state. Lorentz, who missed several games with a minor injury, is back and starting to get back into the form that saw him nail a 50-yard field goal back in August. Lenhardt takes kickoffs and is averaging 43 yards per punt. Those two weapons have given the Trojans an advantage and could again this week.  </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:acf/hudl {"name":"acf/hudl","data":{"embed_code":"u003ciframe src='https://www.hudl.com/embed/video/3/20208324/68b3adb86671c4f59535f924' width='640' height='360' frameborder='0' allowfullscreenu003eu003c/iframeu003e","_embed_code":"field_62daf7995fd8c"},"mode":"edit","alignText":"left","anchor":"acf-block-691b4bcc2f470"} /-->