Analysis: Breaking down the playoff races in Classes 6A-3A
With the start of Week 9 of the New Mexico High School football season just hours away, we take a look at how the playoff races in each classification (6A-3A) are shaping up with three weeks remaining in the regular…
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Continue ReadingWith the start of Week 9 of the New Mexico High School football season just hours away, we take a look at how the playoff races in each classification (6A-3A) are shaping up with three weeks remaining in the regular season:
Class 6A
Definitely In (7): Centennial (5-1), Cleveland (5-2), La Cueva (6-1), Hobbs (6-1), Volcano Vista (6-2), Rio Rancho (5-2), Cibola (6-1).
Probably In (2): Carlsbad (4-3), Los Lunas (4-4)
On the Bubble (8): Farmington (3-4), Las Cruces (1-5), Atrisco Heritage (5-3), Alamogordo (4-3), Organ Mountain (3-4), Sandia (3-4), West Mesa (3-4), Capital (3-4).
Probably Out (2): Eldorado (2-6), Clovis (2-6)
Definitely Out (3): Albuquerque High (1-6), Santa Fe (1-6), Rio Grande (1-5)
Analysis: The top three teams in the 6A polls haven’t changed much since the season started. Centennial, Cleveland and La Cueva have swapped the No. 1 spot all season long. Currently, Centennial is #1 with Cleveland #2 and La Cueva #3. Centennial has games remaining against Carlsbad (Sat., 1 p.m.), Alamogordo and Las Cruces, and the Hawks should be favored in all three games. The most intriguing battle is for the No. 4 seed and the first round bye. That spot will most likely boil down to Hobbs or Volcano Vista. Rio Rancho has an outside shot but their final two games are against Volcano Vista and Cleveland. The most intriguing ‘bubble’ team is Las Cruces. The Bulldawgs play just 9 regular season games, so they can’t finish with a .500 record. However, victories in their final three games against Organ Mountain, Carlsbad and Centennial should put them safely into the field.
Class 5A
Definitely In (6): Roswell (6-1), Piedra Vista (6-1), Artesia (5-2), Goddard (5-2), Valley (5-2), Mayfield (4-3).
Probably In (1): Highland (5-1)
On the Bubble (5): Deming (3-4), Santa Teresa (3-4), Miyamura (3-4), Gadsden (2-5), Los Alamos (3-4)
Probably Out (1): Belen (1-6)
Definitely Out (3): Manzano (0-7), Chaparral (0-7), Del Norte (0-7)
Analysis: When you eliminate the three 0-7 teams from the equation, you have 13 teams fighting for 12 spots. So, we pretty much know who will be the teams playing in November. Belen must run the table in their district games against Highland, Miyamura and Piedra Vista to have a chance to get in. Anything less and it’s just a matter of seeding the remaining 12 teams. The top three seeds will likely be Artesia, Piedra Vista and Roswell. The winner of Friday’s Roswell-Artesia showdown should have the inside track to the No. 1 seed. Goddard, Valley and Mayfield will battle for the No. 4 seed.
Class 4A
Definitely In (5): Silver (6-1), Portales (6-1), Bloomfield (6-1), Lovington (1-6), Taos (6-1).
Probably In (3): Albuquerque Academy (5-2), Moriarty (5-2), Espanola Valley (5-2).
On the Bubble (4): Aztec (2-5), Valencia (2-5), Bernalillo (2-4), Kirtland Central (3-3).
Probably Out (2): St. Pius X (1-6), Shiprock (4-4).
Definitely Out (3): Pojoaque Valley (0-6), Grants (1-6), Gallup (0-7).
Analysis: Three teams are shoo-ins for top four seeds – Silver, Portales & Bloomfield. Most people are scratching their heads over how Lovington can be 1-6 and still be ranked No. 4. Easy explanation. Strength of schedule favors the Wildcats. Their six losses have come to a 6A schools (Hobbs), three 5A schools (Roswell, Santa Teresa, Artesia) and two Texas schools. And their one victory is over a 6A school (Santa Fe). How the Wildcats fare in district play against Albuq. Academy, Bernalillo & Portales will likely determine their post-season fate. Go 2-1 and the Wildcats are in. Another intriguing team: Espanola Valley. The Sundevils have won 5 straight games following an 0-2 start. Yet, they’re ranked just No. 13 in the MaxPreps poll. Their next two game are against Taos and Moriarty. Go 1-1 ad beat currently winless Pojoaque Valley in the final game and thy should be in.
Class 3A
Definitely In (6): Socorro (7-0), St. Michael’s (6-1), Robertson (5-2), Raton (7-1), Ruidoso (7-1), Hatch Valley (5-1-1)
Probably In (1): West Las Vegas (4-4)
On the Bubble (6): Dexter (3-4), Cobre (2-5), Hope Christian (3-4-1), NMMI (4-4), Thoreau (5-2), Newcomb (5-2).
Probably Out (5): Hot Springs (2-5), Crownpoint (4-3), Wingate (3-2), Cuba (2-5), Tohatchi (3-4).
Definitely Out (4): Tucumcari (0-7), Navajo Prep (0-5), Santa Fe Indian (1-5), Zuni (1-6)
Analysis: The top six teams in 3A have separated themselves from the other 16 teams in the 22-team 3A pack, and the gap is quite significant. Those six teams will battle for the top four seeds. Two Week 9 matchups should prove vital: Hatch Valley at Socorro and St. Michael’s at Raton. With WLV (bye this week) likely in, that leaves 11 teams (On The Bubble/Probably Out) to battle for 5 playoff spots. Who gets in? Tough to say. Too much football left to be played. When Selection Sunday arrives on Oct. 30 the NMAA selection committee could end up splitting hairs between teams to determine who gets in and who gets left out. Buckle in.