Behind the Scenes, Fall Rankings Update: 2023s

On Monday we released one of our most comprehensive updates ever on Prep Redzone North Carolina, adding nearly 50 new players to the senior class rankings and moving dozens of players up and down the rankings. As has become the tradition, we're giving readers a behind the scenes look at what went into our most recent rankings update.   When I write these, I try to give readers a peek behind the curtains. We want readers to get an idea of what went into our rankings — the thought process, individual conversations and film rewatches. Since I like lists, here are four thoughts about our rankings.   1. Position Matters (Part 1)   Each class has its own idiosyncrasies. Some of those become clear from the outset, but others take a bit longer to show themselves. This class is unique among any class I've ever scouted in that the positions some players choose to play have a huge impact on their rankings.   Take three highly-ranked examples. [player_tooltip player_id="104090" first="Chris" last="Peal"], now ranked no. 15 overall was once a running back we ranked in the mid-40s at a time we had only 150 total prospects ranked. He made the switch, despite having limited experience in the defensive backfield and his college potential soared.   Remember, our rankings are based more on college potential than overall high school performance. Of course, current success bodes well for future success, but we don't always need to see consistent dominant tape to feel good about ranking a prospect in the Power Five "bucket" (Top 25-35 players)   [player_tooltip player_id="121427" first="Que'Sean" last="Brown"] dominated as a running back before transferring to East Forsyth and moving to receiver. At a higher classification, his size began to hurt his college prospects, so the position change really helped. His recruitment took off as teams found him shifty and productive in the slot and he now finds himself ranked 21st in the state.   Finally, we take a look at the curious case of [player_tooltip player_id="44968" first="Rico" last="Walker"]. First, the facts. The talented 2-way player from Hickory began his recruitment purely as an edge rusher before seeming to shift focus to tight end. As recently as two months ago he worked out at the Rivals combine as an offensive player and many of my sources said he was seriously considering asking to play on that side of the ball in college.   Now it's time for my opinion. In preparation for this potential position change, I altered Walker's ranking on the back end of the site. I had planned to rank him 34th in the state, still in the range of a Power Five prospect, but barely. In my opinion, Havelock's [player_tooltip player_id="144712" first="Javonte" last="Vereen"] is the superior tight end prospect.   A few days after his commitment to North Carolina, I had several sources tell me that while Walker had strongly considered playing tight end in college, he would ultimately play the Jack position (Edge) at North Carolina.   I immediately moved him up the rankings to his position at third overall. He was our initial No. 1 prospect two years ago and he still (in my opinion) has the highest upside of any player in the state. At edge, he's a potential first round draft pick. But had he settled on tight end, his ranking would have been adjusted accordingly.   Long story short, position changes matter to me.   2. Position Matters (Part 2)   I wanted to be cheeky here, so this completely unrelated section has the same title as the first. Here, we're talking positional value.   Recruiting analysts, mock drafters and casual fans alike understand the concept of positional value, but I'm not sure the casual fan understands just how much it matters in rankings.   Simply put, some positions are more important than others, though the exact value of a position varies from year to year and among playing levels. For an example of the first, just compare the importance of quarterbacks in the 1960s to the importance of quarterbacks now.   For the latter, it's obvious that having an elite quarterback in the NFL is far more vital to team success than having an elite running back (Sorry, my fellow Panther fans). However, I would argue that an elite running back correlates more directly to team success than elite quarterback play.   It matters in our rankings as well. When I assisted with rankings in South Carolina years ago, there was a kicker named Nic Sciba. Sciba was an elite kicking prospect and went on to be Wake Forest's all-time leading scorer. Yet, he didn't earn a full scholarship until he'd been on campus nearly two years. We knew how good he was, and still left him out of our top 25.   Our top prospects will typically play positions like quarterback, receiver, edge and — especially this year — offensive tackle (More on the big guys in a bit). That doesn't mean the edge rushers and quarterbacks are more talented, it simply means that they are often more highly sought after by college teams. A punter ranked 39th ([player_tooltip player_id="389707" first="Palmer" last="Williams"]) is elite. The same can be said about long snappers ranked in the top 100 ([player_tooltip player_id="44997" first="Jack" last="Mowrey"]). They might not be ranked with the elite quarterbacks, but trust me, you won't find many better at the position.   Note: You can filter by position to see a player's overall ranking compared to that of the players at his position.   (Shoutout to our ranked specialists: Williams, Mowrey, [player_tooltip player_id="370872" first="Brock" last="Winstead"], [player_tooltip player_id="44995" first="Jackson" last="Moore"], [player_tooltip player_id="44980" first="Aiden" last="Bonde"], [player_tooltip player_id="363261" first="Gray" last="Gitter"], [player_tooltip player_id="144698" first="Ty" last="Woods"], [player_tooltip player_id="372541" first="Sydney" last="McCorkle"], and [player_tooltip player_id="366526" first="Stephen" last="Brantley"])   3. Scouting the OL   This section is 2-fold (My word count is approaching 1000, so I'll be brief). First, I want to explain a bit of how we scout offensive linemen. Spoiler, while our process is thorough, our results aren't perfect. College coaches will tell you offensive line is the hardest position group to scout and recruit and we agree.   I first look for size and quickness. If a kid is 6'6, 300 with quick feet or long arms, he can play at the next level, even if his technique is horrible and his film isn't great. College offensive line coaches can "coach up" big, quick linemen.   That being said, this offensive line class is impressive, especially at the top. The headliners in terms of Power Five offers and commitments are the quartet of [player_tooltip player_id="144930" first="Sullivan" last="Absher"], [player_tooltip player_id="290615" first="Sam" last="Pendleton"], [player_tooltip player_id="378975" first="Darion" last="Rivers"] and [player_tooltip player_id="343332" first="Kamen" last="Smith"].   Absher in particular has a rare combination of size, strength and technique. He and the similarly disciplined Pendleton represent a huge success for first year head coach Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame. Rivers and Smith were two late bloomers that NC State snatched up, each of whom have great potential.   But I have [player_tooltip player_id="44985" first="Connor" last="Drake"] ranked second among the group. Despite his lack of high-profile offers (He does hold a few G5 offers and an offer from Georgia Tech) we think his potential is up there with some of the best in the state. We're expecting a huge senior year from him.   4. Players Ranked Higher than their Offers Suggest   We rank in talent "buckets". When ranking, we bucket the players graded out Power Five, then Group of Five, then FCS and so on. Since talent is talent, our rankings often line up closely with the way players end up being recruited. Every once in a while though we end up having players bucketed above their current offer list.   Some people call that "over-ranked" but we prefer the term "under-recruited".   A few of these guys in particular stand out. Chase running back [player_tooltip player_id="217336" first="Marqies" last="McCombs"] is ranked in between two North Carolina commits, but isn't being recruited like it. One of the most productive high school backs in the country, a strong senior year should do the trick. If not, he'll dominate at a lower level and potentially transfer up.   Similarly, [player_tooltip player_id="132327" first="Josh" last="Iseah"] and [player_tooltip player_id="121181" first="Jayden" last="Shotwell"] have some FCS offers, but have talent to play at an even higher level. Whichever team ends up with either of those two will get a steal.

On Monday we released one of our most comprehensive updates ever on Prep Redzone North Carolina, adding nearly 50 new players to the senior class rankings and moving dozens of players up and down the rankings. As has become the tradition, we're giving readers a behind the scenes look at what went into our most recent rankings update.